One and Not Done: Oregon Defies Expectations to Earn One Seed in NCAA Tournament, but Faces Tough Ro
The University of Oregon men’s basketball team earned a berth in the NCAA tournament as a one seed in the West region. This marks the first time in program history that the Ducks have received a number one seed in the tournament. The highest previous seed the Ducks received in March was the two seed back in 2002.
While some analysts may question why Oregon received a one seed over a team like Michigan State, who earned a two seed in the Midwest region, the numbers speak for themselves. The Ducks won both the Pac-12 regular season championship and the Pac-12 tournament. The team played in one of the nation’s toughest and most balanced conferences. Oregon’s RPI ranks second in the nation and they have dominated Associated Press Top 25 opponents, going 7-1 against current AP Top 25 opponents.
All of this sounds lofty, and deservedly so. Let’s rewind to early November though. The Ducks were selected to finish fourth in the Pac-12. Chris Boucher was virtually unknown and Tyler Dorsey was viewed as a player who could make an impact, but was just a freshman.
Not only has all of the above been rewritten, but Oregon has dominated teams all season. The team beat Arizona twice in a single season, something that has not been done since 2008. Perhaps the greatest feat this team has accomplished this season is in the most recent game—the Pac-12 tournament championship game—where the Ducks broke the record for largest margin of victory in the history of the tournament. Oregon won the game over Utah, 88-57. The Utes are no team to squawk at either, as the school earned a three seed in the NCCA tournament.
Now back to the NCAA tournament. College basketball analysts have said that Oregon does not deserve a one seed over the Michigan State Spartans. Oregon is being ridden off as a real contender in the tournament despite being a one seed. All season, the Ducks have defied expectations and the team’s critics and have only kept on winning game after game.
Even I have ridden off this Oregon team over and over again. I said the Ducks had no business going to Arizona and ending the Wildcats 49 game home winning streak. I said the team had no chance of winning the Pac-12 tournament. At the beginning of the year, I even said that Oregon would be lucky to get over 20 wins this season. Wrong. Wrong. Wrong. I have not believed one bit in Oregon this year, and I am here to admit that I have been completely wrong.
Oregon has proven themselves as one of the top teams in the country not only in the team’s tournament seeding, but also in the “eye test.” Oregon passes the eye test with flying colors. Just look at what the team did to Utah in the Pac-12 tournament championship. Oregon forced 20 Utah turnovers and shut down a projected NBA lottery pick in Jakob Poeltl. The effort shown by the Ducks in that game was one of the best all-around defensive games this season by any team.
But the Ducks high grades in the eye test do not end on the defensive end. Oregon has proven that players can make shots from all over the court. 6’3” guard Casey Benson can make three point shots and drive in for layups. 6’10” center Chris Boucher can be seen finishing alley oops and also knocking down three point shots. As a whole, the Ducks shoot over 46 percent from the field. Every player on the team, no matter the size, can make shots from all around the court.
This is why, against most analysts opinion, Oregon could make a deep run in the NCAA tournament in the coming weeks. The Ducks are one of the most balanced teams this season and have beaten quality opponents all year long. But to make a deep run, the Ducks must prove the team can beat out of conference teams in the postseason.
To make a deep tournament run, Oregon is likely to play the following teams—that is, if tournament seeding holds true. It is March Madness, so anything is possible.
16 Holy Cross: The Ducks may be a little weary of Holy Cross, as the Crusaders have won four straight road games to win the Patriot League tournament championship. While no game is easy, Oregon should handily win against either team. No one seed has ever lost to a sixteen seed in the NCAA tournament. At least not yet.
8 Saint Joseph’s: This is a game where Oregon could be in for a challenge. Saint Joseph’s is a team that does not turn the ball over often. The Hawks have a big man who can shoot three pointers and draw Chris Boucher’s shot blocking ability out of the paint. Saint Joseph’s junior forward DeAndre Bembry can fill the stat-sheet on any given night. The Hawks have problems forcing turnovers though. In March, more possessions means more points, and creating turnovers could be a difference maker for Saint Joseph’s.
4 Duke: Coach K, Brandon Ingram, Grayson Allen, the reigning national champions—what else could Oregon ask for to prove that they are truly deserving of a one seed. The Blue Devils are still one of the most dangerous teams in the nation despite the team having a down year. Duke is an offensive juggernaut and could keep pace with Oregon’s up and down style. Duke is one of the worst rebounding teams in the country in terms of rebounding percentage, and Chris Boucher and Jordan Bell can give Duke trouble. A win for the Ducks could give them the momentum the team needs to propel them deep into the tournament.
2 Oklahoma: Two words—Buddy Hield. Buddy Hield is a national player of the year candidate, as he has led the Sooners to an impressive 25-7 record while putting up 25.0 points per game. Oklahoma would be the toughest challenge yet for Oregon. Oklahoma is one of the best three point shooting teams in the country. The team makes over ten three pointers per game and is shooting 42.6 percent from deep. Oregon allowed opposing teams to shoot 36.3 percent from beyond the arc, one of the lowest in the Pac-12. The Sooners will have the green light to shoot as many three pointers as they please. The result of this game will rest on the shoulders of Buddy Hield. If the sharpshooter has one of “those games,” Oregon will not be able to win and advance. They must find a way to shut him down to win.
1 Kansas: Just as I was saying Oklahoma would be the Ducks toughest matchup, Kansas decided to come up. The Kansas Jayhawks are quite possibly the best team in the country and most analysts’ pick to win the whole tournament. Kansas is the number one overall seed in the tournament and is also one of the most balanced teams in it. Perry Ellis and Frank Mason are monsters. All five starters hit at least 40 percent of their three pointers. Oregon will need to play its best game this season if the Ducks want to beat Rock Chalk. The team must shoot lights out from the field and from the charity stripe while also finding a way to shut down the Jayhawks’ offense.
1 North Carolina: Yeah, yeah, yeah you get it. Tough matchup, great team—I think you’re starting to get the idea. Thing is, every team this deep in the tournament is really, really good. That list of really, really good teams includes the North Carolina Tar Heels. Brice Johnson and Marcus Paige are both potential NBA stars. The two average 27.1 points per game combined and Johnson averages over ten rebounds a game. The Tar Heels aren’t great three point shooters, as the team only shot 28 percent from deep this season, but the team is deadly from two point range. UNC was tabbed as the best team in the country in the Associated Press Preseason Top 25 rankings, and can very well end the season with the rankings. Oregon, however, will need all five starters (Tyler Dorsey, Casey Benson, Dillon Brooks, Elgin Cook, and Chris Boucher) to be on point if they want to beat the Tar Heels. The Ducks are a good three point shooting team, and the Tar Heels are not. Three pointers are worth more than two pointers. Oregon must outshoot North Carolina to win the NCAA championship and cut down the nets.
I have humbled myself by calling this team overrated all season long. I am not doing it for the millionth time. I am here to announce that this team is legit and primed to make a deep NCAA tournament run.
