Seven Bold Predictions for the 2016 Oregon Football Season
Did I ever tell you about the time I totally called…
Ok, ok, ok…everybody wants to tell the story about that one time they nailed a prediction. We all have those stories. One of my friends, Jack, always tells me how he predicted Vernon Adams Jr. would be the difference maker for the 2015 Oregon Ducks and that the team would win every game after he returned from his injury. Adams not only won his last six regular season games as the starter, but he made the Ducks one of the most dangerous teams in the country while putting up an absurd 44.8 points per game against teams like USC and Stanford.
One of my other friends, Nick, predicted early in the season that the Golden State Warriors would break the 95-96 Chicago Bulls’ regular season wins record, win the NBA title, and go on to be the best team ever. The Warriors did break the wins record, but did not win the NBA championship. They also, in my opinion, did not prove that they are the best team ever.
Like Jack and Nick’s predictions, mine are the same—they have a high likelihood of not happening at all. At the beginning of the NBA season, nobody thought the Warriors would win 73 games. In mid-October, nobody thought Oregon would rally from 3-3 to finish the season 9-3.
I don’t consider predicting Oregon to finish the regular season with double digit wins to be bold. It happened just two years ago and it has happened almost every year in recent memory. Something I do consider bold is instead predicting the Ducks to finish the year below .500, something the team hasn’t done since 2004. A bold prediction to me is something that most likely won’t happen, not something that will.
So, now that I’ve admitted that most of these probably will not be correct, without further adieu, here are my 2016 Oregon football bold predictions.
1) Royce Freeman will finish the year with over 2,200 rushing yards and 25 touchdowns.
I know what you’re thinking, 2,200 yards and 25 touchdowns? Only four other players in college football history have ever done that. But my question is, why not Freeman? He’s got the intangibles to put up those numbers. He is 5’11’’, 230 pounds, and runs a 4.49 40 yard dash. Oregon loves the run, running the rock 618 times while only throwing 375 passes last season. Last year, Vernon Adams Jr. was also in Eugene. Last I checked, he’s now with the Montreal Alouettes, and graduate transfer Dakota Prukop is Oregon’s presumptive starter. My guess is until head coach Mark Helfrich knows exactly what kind of a quarterback Prukop will be at the FBS level, the Ducks will heavily rely on “Rolls Royce.” Let’s say the Ducks throw 50 less passes over the span of the season and run the ball 50 more times. That’s about 300 more yards right there based on last season’s rushing averages. Let’s also say Helfrich gives his star the ball a little bit more and gives the ball to Taj Griffin, Kani Benoit, and Tony Brooks-James a little less. I think about 300 more yards for Freeman is not out of this world. Eight more touchdowns are a bit harder to imagine, but who else is going to get the goal line touches? And trust me, Oregon has one of the most potent and fast paced offenses in the country. They’ll get a ton of plays in and a ton of goal line opportunities in the process.
2) Brady Hoke will turn Oregon’s defense around.
There’s been a lot of buzz in Eugene since Brady Hoke was announced as Oregon’s new defensive coordinator in January, and deservedly so. In four of the last five seasons, Brady Hoke’s defenses have heralded a top twenty total defense. With Hoke’s 4-3 scheme being implemented at Oregon, the emphasis will be to stop outside runs and force them inside, a big problem the Ducks had last year. Against conventional offenses like USC and Stanford, this approach will work, but what about against spread offenses? More linemen in a 4-3 defense should stop the run. Oregon’s secondary has playmakers in Arrion Springs and Tyree Robinson that can take one to the house at any given moment. But, as the old saying goes, the eye is in the details. Don Pellum was demoted for a reason—he was not detail oriented. Brady Hoke, on the other hand, is notorious for emphasizing detail with his defensive units. He’ll use junior tackle Henry Mondeaux to stuff inside runs and run over offenses to drop the opposing signal caller. He will turn Oregon from the 115th ranked defense it was last season into a top 20 group. How? It’ll be in the details.
3) Oregon will finish fourth place in the Pac-12 North.
Wait a second, didn’t I just say Oregon would have a top 20 defense? And doesn’t Oregon always have one of the best offenses in the country? Well, if you have been paying even the slightest bit of attention, you would know the answer to both questions is yes. Oregon will still have a potent offense, but that doesn’t mean it will be at the same caliber it has been in recent years. Dakota Prukop, Oregon’s new graduate transfer quarterback from Montana State, just is not on the level of Marcus Mariota or Vernon Adams Jr. Prukop looked just plain average during the Ducks’ spring game back in April, and he has had trouble figuring out the speed of Oregon’s players and system. Montana State is no Oregon in the football world, and Prukop has not been able to figure out the difference in speed between the two schools’ receivers, underthrowing a lot of balls during spring practice. Until Prukop shows me that he is the answer to Oregon’s quarterback conundrum, I’m not going to say the Ducks will take this season to the next level. But you said the defense will be great! (I can hear your screams…don’t worry.) Just because you have a really good defense, doesn’t mean you’re going to have the best record. Look at Washington last season. The Huskies finished the team’s 2015 campaign ranked 30th in the country in total defense, but finished fifth in the Pac-12 North standings. But this isn’t about Oregon’s shortcomings. I just think that Stanford, Washington State, and Washington will all have better seasons that the Ducks. Stanford has Christian McCaffrey, one of the best offensive lines in the country, and a smashmouth defense. Washington State has Luke Falk, Mike Leach, and the daunting air raid offense. Washington has Jake Browning, who has developed a ton over the past year heading into his sophomore season, and one of the best defenses in the country. I really don’t see Oregon being able to beat out all of those teams in the standings, and I think the Ducks will finish fourth in the North, ahead of just California and Oregon State.
4) Washington beats the Ducks and ends the streak.
I can see the glow from your torches and pitchforks already. But sorry Oregon fans, this is the year your twelve year win streak over Washington will come to an end this season. I said in my last prediction that Washington will finish ahead of Oregon in the Pac-12 North standings, and for that to happen, the Huskies have to win this game. The Huskies have one of the best defenses in the nation. Inside linebacker Victor Azeem controls the middle of the field and can stop anything an offense throws at him, leading the team in tackles last season with 95. Keishawn Bierria, the Huskies’ second leading tackler, will also be back to help Azeem in the middle of the field. Washington’s secondary is possibly the best in the country. Sidney Jones returns after leading the team in interceptions last season. Kevin King brings senior leadership to this defense. JoJo McIntosh is just downright terrifying, and Baker Budda leads the secondary in tackling. Oh, and by the way, the Huskies also have one of the best defensive lines in the conference as well. The Huskies embrace rugby style tackling under head coach Chris Petersen, being more physical with every play. But the Huskies aren’t just all defense. Quarterback Jake Browning is heading into his second season in the purple and gold. Over Washington’s final six games last year, Browning averaged 270.5 yards per game after only averaging 190.3 his first seven games. Over those final six games, Browning also threw four touchdowns twice, something he didn’t do once in the first seven outings. Browning should improve more during the summer and head into the season continuing the pace he was on those last six games. For these reasons I think Washington will not only beat the Ducks (to make it worse, Oregon fans, the game is in Eugene), but the team will also win the Pac-12 North. This game between the two rivals will be close, something along the lines of 16-13, but Washington’s time to shine is now.
5) Dillon Mitchell will end the year as Oregon’s top receiver.
Did you see Dillon Mitchell during Oregon’s spring game? Wow, was he good! He finished the game leading all players with 104 yards and two touchdowns on seven catches. The freshman also hauled in a pair of highlight-worthy catches in the game. Throughout the game, Mitchell showed great chemistry with both quarterbacks, especially with presumed starter Dakota Prukop. Prukop trusted Mitchell on deep balls, connecting on a 32 yard score on the final play of the first half. Mitchell also nabbed a 31 yard touchdown later in the game. If Mitchell can grab maybe two or three 30+ yard passes per game, that’s already approaching 100 yards a game. A couple more catches here and there every game, and he’s leading the team in receiving yards. I think by about midseason, Mitchell will pass Dwayne Stanford on the depth chart. Darren Carrington will receive a lot of attention from defenses, leaving Mitchell in a ton of one-on-one coverages, which he proved he can beat during the spring game (I’m looking at you Ugo Amadi. Sorry, but Dillon Mitchell absolutely humiliated you during the spring game more than just a few times). Now I know Mitchell is just a freshman, but why can’t he lead the team in receiving yards? At 6’1”, he has the size to go up top against collegiate corners and has the speed to burn any team’s defense, having run a 4.42 40 yard dash at The Opening Finals in 2015. The only thing Oregon’s quarterback (whoever it ends up being) will have to do is throw the rock Mitchell’s way. My guess is he’ll finish his freshman campaign with around 70 catches for 950 yards and 8 touchdowns.
6) Oregon will lose half of the team's starters at the end of the 2016 season.
Wide receiver Dwayne Stanford, guard Cameron Hunt, tight end Pharaoh Brown, quarterback Dakota Prukop, defensive end T.J. Daniel, defensive end Torrodney Prevot, outside linebacker Johnny Ragin III, and strong safety Reggie Daniels are all seniors, so they’ll all be done with their college careers after this season. But that’s only eight of the eleven players who will be gone after next year. Remember when I said Royce Freeman will put up 2,200 yards and 25 touchdowns? Well he’ll be draft eligible since he’ll be a junior, and after an all-time great season like that, there’s no way you don’t go for the NFL. I’m guessing Freeman will go in the mid rounds, something like the fourth or fifth rounds. Charles Nelson will attract some NFL teams based on his speed in space alone. Put him deep on a kickoff or a punt and you never know what’s going to happen. Nelson could also be a decent fourth or fifth receiver out of the slot on any team. He can play on both sides of the ball too, which will attract even more scouts. He can be a dime corner or maybe a quarter safety. He doesn’t really have the size to be an every down starting safety in the NFL, but he was one of the harder hitting safeties in the Pac-12 last season. He’ll get some looks, so expect him to test the draft waters and go in the later rounds of the draft. The last starter I think will depart Eugene after next season is Darren Carrington. He’s been one of Oregon’s most reliable receivers when he’s actually been on the field. He has had some off the field issues, however. Carrington was suspended for the CFP National Championship in 2014 and the first six games of the 2015 season for failing a drug test after testing positive for marijuana. Despite that, NFL teams can look over off the field issues because of on the field play. Last season, Carrington caught 32 balls for 630 yards and six touchdowns in seven games. If he played a full season, Carrington would have finished the year with 60 catches for 1,131 yards and 11 touchdowns. Those numbers would have given him the twelfth most scores and 22nd most yards in the country. Those numbers and his physical skillset will catch the eyes of NFL scouts. Not only that, but over the past three drafts, an average of 33 wide receivers per year have had their names called by Roger Goodell. There’s no reason Darren Carrington shouldn’t hear his name called as well. Expect him to go in the fourth or fifth round.
7) Mark Helfrich has to rethink his quarterback situation.
Since Marcus Mariota left for the NFL draft in 2014, Oregon has had a quarterback problem. For the past two years, head coach Mark Helfrich has dipped down to the FCS to find his next quarterback. In 2015, Helfrich received a commitment from Eastern Washington playmaker Vernon Adams Jr. and that worked out pretty well. Adams was second in the FBS in passer efficiency rating only behind Baylor’s Seth Russell. Adams also put up a touchdown to interception ratio of over four to one, throwing 26 touchdowns and only six picks. But that was last season. This year, Helfrich dipped down into the FCS yet again to pick up Montana State’s Dakota Prukop. At Montana State, Prukop threw for over 3,000 yards and 28 touchdowns, and also rushed for almost 800 yards and 11 touchdowns. But unlike Adams, Prukop hasn’t proved that he can compete with FBS talent. At Eastern Washington, Vernon Adams competed against Washington and Oregon State, beating the Beavers 49-46, and falling to the Huskies 59-52. Prukop, on the other hand, doesn’t have any experience against the FBS. In Oregon’s spring game, Prukop was 20-29 on pass attempts, but many of those passes were on screens and short passes. I don’t think Prukop will be terrible in the green and yellow, but I don’t think he’ll be able to replicate what Adams accomplished last season. Prukop doesn’t have the experience it takes, as of now, to lead one of the top FBS programs to stardom against stiff competition in one of the nation’s better conferences. Prukop has also never played in front of such a large crowd with so much noise. At Montana State, he only played in front of about 21,000 fans. At Oregon he’ll play in front of about 54,000. That can get to some quarterbacks, and it would not surprise me if it gets to Prukop as well. I think he’ll be an average quarterback in the Pac-12. Oregon doesn’t settle for average, however. There is a reason Helfrich has had to go to the FCS for the past two seasons to find a quarterback, and that is because the team has not recruited well at the position. My guess is that after an average season by Prukop, Helfrich will realize that he needs to build offensive chemistry over more than just a few months to be able to achieve success. Look for Helfrich to be aggressive in recruiting quarterbacks after the 2016 season, and look for a more long term starter. Don’t be surprised if a freshman or sophomore starts for the Ducks in 2017.
