The Rise and Fall of Oregon Football
Before the Ducks’ upcoming game against the Washington Huskies, Oregon football’s offensive line coach Steve Greatwood said, “The streak is not going to end. We've had the upper hand and we intend to keep that for the next several years.” But, contrary to Coach Greatwood’s prediction, the streak has ended, and turmoil has arrived in Eugene.
Washington had not beaten the Ducks since the 2003 season. According to The Seattle Times, during those twelve years, the Huskies had led in a game for a combined total of eight minutes and eleven seconds. Washington had lost by an average of 24 points per game.
Fast forward to 2016.
The streak is officially over and it ended in humiliation. Washington overwhelmingly dominated the Ducks, blowing them out 70-21. The 70 points allowed by Oregon was the most the team has given up in a game since a 71-7 loss to Texas on December 6, 1941, the day before Pearl Harbor was attacked by Japan. The 70 points allowed were also the second most ever given up in program history.
Two seasons ago, Oregon was in the College Football Playoff National Championship Game against the Ohio State Buckeyes. Now, they are dead last in the Pac-12 and in danger of not playing in a bowl game for the first time since 2004. This loss is a shock to every Oregon fan. Many are asking what happened? The answer to that question isn’t easy. It is complicated, so to understand it, we need to first look at how Oregon emerged as a national power and go back to 1995.
1995: The Bellotti Era Begins
After Rich Brooks left Oregon for the NFL, then-offensive coordinator Mike Bellotti took over as head coach at Oregon. In his first season, Bellotti led the Ducks to a 9-3 record and a Cotton Bowl appearance against the Colorado Buffalos. In Bellotti’s fourteen years as a coach at Oregon, he led the team to a bowl game twelve times, more times than Oregon had been to a bowl games in the program’s 101 year history.
2000: A Perfect Ten
Since the program’s inception in 1894, Oregon football had never won ten games in a season. That was, until 2000. Oregon football capped their 2000 season with a shared Pac-10 Championship with Washington and Oregon State. The team advanced to the Holiday Bowl, where they defeated Texas, 35-30.
2001: Captain Comeback
Joey Harrington, the Oregon quarterback had a season for the ages. He led the Ducks to their first eleven win season in program history, six of which were by one score or less, earning him the nickname “Captain Comeback.” Harrington was a Heisman finalist, and Oregon was the second ranked team in both the AP and Coaches Polls, but was given a Fiesta Bowl berth instead of a national championship appearance. Oregon ended up dominating Colorado in the Fiesta Bowl 38-16, and finished the season ranked number two in both polls.
Chip Kelly was named offensive coordinator at Oregon in 2007 and later promoted to head coach in 2009. In 2010, Kelly led the Ducks to an undefeated regular season and a national championship game appearance.
2007: Chip Kelly Arrives
After a dismal 38-8 loss to BYU in the Holiday Bowl the previous year, offensive coordinator Gary Crowton took a job at LSU. Chip Kelly was chosen to replace Crowton in February 2007, and the offense immediately came alive. Kelly implemented a high speed, quick hitting offense that ran a play every fifteen or so seconds. Opposing teams couldn’t find a way to slow down Oregon’s high powered offense. The Ducks led the Pac-10 in rushing for the first time since 1955 and began the season 8-1 before being hit hard by injuries at quarterback. Despite the injuries, Oregon bested USF 56-21 in the Sun Bowl.
2009: The Granddaddy of Them All
Chip Kelly was promoted to head coach after Mike Bellotti stepped down before the 2009 season. Although the Ducks began the season with controversy (LeGarrette Blount punched a Boise State player in a loss), the team still won the Pac-10 by two games. Oregon advanced to the school’s first Rose Bowl appearance since 1995, but ended up falling to the Terrell Pryor led Ohio State Buckeyes.
2010: Undefeated
2010 began with a whirlwind of problems for Chip Kelly. Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli was removed from the team after a year-long suspension stemming from marijuana possession, failing to stop, theft, and driving with a suspended license charges. Running back LaMichael James also was suspended for the first game of the year after he pleaded guilty to physical harassment of a former girlfriend. Despite the controversy, Oregon dominated their competition and was ranked number one in the AP poll by mid-October. The Ducks went on to go undefeated and were selected to play against Auburn in the 2011 BCS National Championship Game. The Ducks ended up falling to Cam Newton’s Tigers on a field goal as time expired, 22-19.
2012: Mahalo Marcus
In Hawaiian, mahalo can mean both hello and goodbye. A year after besting Wisconsin for the Ducks’ first Rose Bowl win since 1917, Chip Kelly welcomed in a three star recruit from Hawaii named Marcus Mariota. Mariota went on to win the starting job, and dominated opponents throughout his freshman campaign. Running back Kenjon Barner dazzled as well, being named a finalist for the Doak Walker Award, and being awarded All-American honors. Despite high achieving players, Oregon’s Pac-12 championship aspirations fell short after a home loss to Stanford. The Ducks would go on to play Kansas State in the Fiesta Bowl, winning 35-17. A few months later, however, Chip Kelly would resign and take the Philadelphia Eagles’ head coaching job, leaving Oregon with a bright new signal caller, but a head coaching vacancy.
2013: Mark Helfrich Becomes Oregon’s Head Coach
After Chip Kelly moved on to the Eagles, offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich was hired as the Ducks’ new head coach. Oregon had championship aspirations, along with Marcus Mariota’s Heisman ambitions, but lost to both Stanford and Arizona, knocking them out of Pac-12 championship contention. The Ducks still received an Alamo Bowl bid, and derailed Texas by more than three scores. Defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti retired after the victory, leaving Don Pellum to fill the opening.
2014: Mahalo Marcus Part Two
Oregon’s 2014 season was one for the history books. Mark Helfrich won his first Pac-12 title as Oregon’s coach, and led the Ducks to the first ever College Football Playoff against Florida State and reigning Heisman winner Jameis Winston. Marcus Mariota cemented himself as perhaps the greatest quarterback in Oregon football history after winning the Heisman, Manning, Maxwell, Walter Camp, Davey O’Brien, Johnny Unitas Golden Arm, and AP Player of the Year awards. In the Playoff, Oregon blew out Florida State 59-20, but ended up losing to Ohio State by 22 in the CFP National Championship Game. Remember though, mahalo has two meanings. Marcus Mariota decided to forgo his senior year and entered the 2015 NFL Draft, where he was drafted second overall by the Tennessee Titans.
Marcus Mariota's 2014 season cemented him as one of Oregon's all-time greats after winning the Heisman Trophy among many other awards. Mariota led the Ducks to their second ever national championship appearance.
So that is how Oregon rose to the top of the college football world over about twenty or so years. But they fell so quickly. There are three key reasons the Ducks fell off the face of the college football world.
Part of the difference is between the way Chip Kelly and Mark Helfrich have handled recruitment. Kelly recruited players such as Marcus Mariota, LaMichael James, and Kenjon Barner. Even Mike Bellotti was able to get players like Patrick Chung, Haloti Ngata, and Joey Harrington, all of who became great players in the right system. Helfrich, who admittedly discovered Marcus Mariota, hasn’t recruited anyone else of stature yet. Since 2013, Helfrich’s biggest recruit was Vernon Adams Jr., a graduate transfer quarterback from Eastern Washington.
Adams did have a great year, but it was only a year. Under NCAA rules, graduate transfers are only eligible to play at another school for one year. After Adams’ eligibility ran out, Helfrich yet again showed his weakness in recruiting, dipping down to the FCS to get another graduate transfer player, Dakota Prukop. As most Oregon faithful know, Prukop’s level of play didn’t turn out to be anywhere near the level Vernon Adams had delivered, and now the Ducks are 2-4 in large part because of Mark Helfrich’s ineptitude at recruiting a long term answer at quarterback.
Oregon’s recruiting problem is not just at the quarterback positon. The roster is filled with two and three star recruits. Brenden Schooler, Oregon’s starting safety, was a two star recruit coming out of high school, and his only other Division I offer was from Wyoming. The entire defensive line is made up of three star recruits. Even Justin Herbert, the current starting quarterback after Prukop’s abysmal season, was a three star recruit who, besides Oregon, only received FCS offers during his senior year of high school.
For the past decade or so, Oregon has been one of the most dominant teams in college football. Yet the coaching staff has not been able to attract four and five star recruits. Fans want to know why. Looking at the 2017 recruiting class, Oregon has seven four star recruits and four three star recruits, but no five star recruits. Granted it is only October, and signing day isn’t for another six months, but other top level programs already have talent locked up.
Alabama has one of the best coaches and recruiters in the nation in Nick Saban. The Crimson Tide has enjoyed a level of success for the past decade similar to Oregon’s, albeit with more championship wins. But by context, Alabama’s 2017 recruiting class reflects that success: three five star recruits, eleven four star recruits, and three three star recruits, with seven players being ranked inside the top three at their position nationally, according to ESPN.com.
Thomas Arends, the head of football recruiting at Oregon responded to the way Oregon recruits players based on rankings, saying, “We don’t look at stars at all. For us there’s a whole background of what we do but there’s so much more that goes into it. We’re looking at what they’re doing on social media, what type of person they are at the school, what people outside of the football program have to say about these guys that we’re recruiting.”
While stars don’t tell the full story of a player’s abilities, they do give indication of a player’s physical traits such as speed, throw power, coverage, etc. Under Chip Kelly, three star athletes were recruited, and did thrive, but that is because of the uniqueness of Kelly’s system.
Justin Hollins was recruited as a three star defensive end. Hollins is also severely undersized for the position, only weighing in at 235 pounds. To compare, linebacker Jimmie Swain is the same size, despite being four inches shorter and playing a more athletic position.
Chip Kelly’s offensive philosophy was a ground and pound, quick hitting scheme. He wanted to have the best running game with the best running backs he could find. He also wanted the offense to run an up-tempo no huddle system, where a play is run every fifteen to twenty second to tire out the defense and stretch them out as far along the field as possible. Mark Helfrich’s team also runs the same system, so what’s different?
That brings us to the next reason Oregon is falling apart—the system. The reason Oregon’s system worked so well in the past was because other teams had not figured it out. It was just too fast. Now, as more college football teams have taken on Oregon’s system as their own, teams know what Oregon will do and how to stop them from doing it.
Instead of just Oregon running a no-huddle offense, teams such as Washington State, TCU, Baylor, and Arizona have all implemented systems that play fast and spread defenses out. The rest of the Pac-12 has also caught up to Oregon in recent years. Stanford and Washington both run an offense similar to Oregon’s. It spreads the defense out, but just doesn’t go as fast as Oregon.
The reason Oregon was so good for the past twenty years is because they were innovative. Now that everyone has caught up to the Ducks, they are back to being what they were before Mike Bellotti took the reigns as head coach—an average football team. If Oregon wants to return to the being college football’s elite, they must find a new way of separating themselves from the rest.
Finally, Oregon is in a downward spiral because of its lack of a college level defense. The reason the defense struggles so much is directly correlated to the up-tempo offense the team runs. If the offense is only on the field for twenty minutes a game, the defense has to be on the field for forty minutes. No defense can stay fresh for two-thirds of the game, especially if the unit is only given a two minute break between each series.
Take this for example. Against Washington State, Oregon was down 20-30 in the fourth quarter and threatening to comeback. Here’s how the rest of the game went:
Washington State: 12 plays, 75 yards, 4:59, Touchdown
Oregon: 5 plays, 14 yards, 2:23, Punt
Washington State: 5 plays, 82 yards, 2:23, Touchdown
Oregon: 0 plays, 0 yards, 0:00, Kick Return Touchdown
Washington State: 9 plays, 83 yards, 5:04, Touchdown
During the fourth quarter, Washington State had the ball for 12:26 compared to Oregon’s 2:23. A two minute break for every twelve minutes on the field is going to exhaust a defense, only fresh substitutes and a rested defense can keep up with other teams.
Oregon’s defense rapidly changed after Nick Aliotti retired. Aliotti’s defense allowed yards, but were able to stop teams in critical situations. A Pac-12 coach told ESPN.com, “When Aliotti was there, they had good players and they came from everywhere. They’d line up and you’re like, ‘OK they’re susceptible here,’ and then they’d have someone end up there. They did some unique things alignment-wise, coming from different places. You could never get a bead on it.”
But when Don Pellum took over for the retired Aliotti, the defense slipped. Despite Oregon making it to the CFP National Championship Game, the defense was not on the same level as it was under Aliotti, and it showed against Ohio State. Ezekiel Elliott torched the Oregon run defense for 236 yards and 4 touchdowns. The following season, the Ducks ranked near the bottom of the FBS in many defensive categories. Against TCU in the Alamo Bowl, Pellum’s defense allowed 47 points in the second half and overtime. Pellum was demoted to linebackers coach in the offseason.
Highly touted defensive mind Brady Hoke was hired as Oregon’s defensive coordinator with hopes that his new 4-3 defense would show improvements from the 3-4 the team had used in previous years. There’s one problem with the 4-3 the way Oregon uses it though. It doesn’t work. Here’s why.
In a base 3-4 defense, there are four players in the secondary, three players on the defensive line, and four linebackers. Coaches can do many different things in the 3-4 because it gives liberty to blitz a linebacker or safety, or drop a lineman into coverage, put on a spy, and countless other reads. This is what the Pac-12 coach mentioned earlier was talking about when speaking of Aliotti’s defense. Opposing teams just became confused because there were so many things to look out for.
In a base 4-3, on the other hand, four players remain in the secondary, but now there are four down lineman and only three linebackers. In the 4-3, coaches know exactly what is going to happen. The four down lineman are going to rush the passer and try to close the gaps, one or two linebackers will blitz as well, and the rest will drop into coverage. Exotic play calls don’t work in the 4-3 because there aren’t enough bodies in the middle of the field to try mixing up defensive looks.
The 4-3 defense, shown left, and the 3-4 defense, shown right, are two basic defensive formations. Among many other differences, the 3-4 allows for more opportunities for disguised play calls, while the 4-3 does not. Oregon ran the 3-4 defense under Nick Aliotti, but currently runs the 4-3 defense under Brady Hoke.
Right now, Oregon doesn’t have good enough players with big enough bodies to play in the 4-3, and it shows up on the stat sheet. Out of 128 teams in the FBS, Oregon currently ranks 117th against the run, 113th against the pass, 126th in total defense, and 125th in points allowed. Defensive end Justin Hollins has good height, but is more of a linebacker, as he doesn’t have the size or power moves to play the position. De’Quan McDowell plays linebacker but is built more like a safety. The entire secondary’s tackling has been subpar at best this year.
Frustration has started to become a problem for the Ducks after their seven touchdown loss to their rival at home. Senior right guard Cameron Hunt expressed his anger and frustration towards both players and coaches after the loss, saying, “We’ve got some guys on our team who are busting their tails to win and other guys on our team that don’t even care if we win or lose. I don’t think everyone is bought-in. I think people really need to evaluate if they want to play. As a coach, figure out what guys want to play and what guys don’t want to play, and if they don’t want to play, they can leave.” Hunt estimated that thirty to forty percent of the team doesn’t care about winning or losing anymore.
While this season’s championship aspirations are over already, Oregon needs to work the rest of the season to reclaim its lost identity. Instead of looking like California in their latest edition of new jerseys, Oregon needs to swiftly address its coaching problems. Two years ago, the Ducks were the team nobody wanted to play. Now, Oregon is the team everybody wants to play, and it all comes back to coaching. It is not my decision if Mark Helfrich should be fired, but he needs to be held accountable for his awful defense, his inability to adjust his scheme on a game by game basis, and his lackluster recruiting.
It may be too late for that at this point. Gone are the days of Mike Bellotti and Chip Kelly. Marcus Mariota, LaMichael James, and Joey Harrington have all moved on. Soon too will Royce Freeman and the rest of the playmakers on this year’s Oregon team—that’s normal. The Ducks have reached the edge of the cliff and are being pushed off by the rest of college football. It may be another twenty years before Oregon restores itself amongst college football’s elite, but one thing is certain. All signs point to the era of Oregon football’s dominance coming to an unexpected, abrupt, and crashing end.
